Is Newt Gingrich Now a Serious Candidate?
I’m gonna try and do at least a few blog entries this week because there’s a bunch of stuff I want to put up even though its going to be really hectic school wise. Anyway, here’s just a quick one to get me back into it.
First, believe it or not, it looks like the markets considered Newt Gingrich’s endorsement by the New Hampshire Union Leader a significant event. He’s up t0 around 23 after closing around 16 yesterday representing a change of about 7 percentage points.
Furthermore, it appears that the hit came directly at Romney’s expense since he closed above 60 yesterday and is now around 57. Of course, Romney is still by far the front runner, so it’s important to keep all of this in perspective. But the market is saying that there is a 1/4 chance Gingrich will be the Republican nominee, which is a much higher level than that ever achieved by Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann. Perry of course was once at about 1/3 but after that he seemed to try and do everything in his power to convince the electorate that he’s not presidential material. I just wish Intrade had a governor of Texas market. I wonder how/if Perry’s poor performance has affected his chances of re-election in Texas.
On a final note, to the extent that I get around to voting, which isn’t necessarily going to happen given my past, it’s more than likely I’m going to support Romney. But I was very impressed by Newt Gingrich’s immigration stance during the debate. It would be nice to see the Republican party, the party of free trade, realize that immigration is basically the same thing as free trade from an economic standpoint and act accordingly.