A Very Cool New Economics Website Courtesy of the Booth School of Business at Chicago
Before I start, the usual caveat applies that I’m clearly abusing and really, for all intents and purposes, misusing the word “cool”.
So today I discovered this new website sponsored by U Chicago’s Business school:
This site, among other things, poses a question to 40 or so of the world’s best academic economists and categorizes their answers to give people a sense of how much consensus their is the economics world on the issue. I’ll probably end up discussing this website a lot in the future. But to start, I want to highlight this particular poll:
IGM asked its economists the following question:
“Unless they have inside information, very few investors, if any, can consistently make accurate predictions about whether the price of an individual stock will rise or fall on a given day.”
The economists responded with an amazing degree of consensus. 55% “strongly agreed” with the statement, “40% “agreed” with the statement and no economists disagreed. (It seems like about 5% of the sample just didn’t get around to voting).
The website also allows economists to comment on their vote. I’ll share a few of them.
Austan Goolsbee, President Obama’s previous CEA chairman commented “We have at least 10,000 research papers establishing this one as a fact.”
Richard Schmalensee of MIT commented “The evidence on this one seems overwhelming.”
A few of the economists did note that they believe there are a small-cadre investors out there who may be capable of beating the market. But overall the consensus is clear – it is very unlikely that an individual investor can beat the market.