More on Predicting the Presidential Election Courtesy of Daniel
A good find by Daniel who writes:
“Nate Silver’s NYTimes Magazine article last weekend comes up with a similar set of probabilities, though it also includes the effects of different potential Republican nominees in addition to 2012 GDP growth. Basic punchline: Republicans should pick Romney, who will be a slight favorite with sluggish economic growth, and a major favorite if the economy gets any worse. Huntsman would be even better but that’s not happening. Anyway, check it out if you haven’t already (it even has a nice interactive graphic):
What’s interesting is that not only is this consistent with Intrade and the Fair model, but its been reported that the only Republican candidate that President Obama’s campaign team views as a serious threat is Romney.