More on Predicting the Presidential Election Courtesy of Daniel

by robekulick

A good find by Daniel who writes:

“Nate Silver’s NYTimes Magazine article last weekend comes up with a similar set of probabilities, though it also includes the effects of different potential Republican nominees in addition to 2012 GDP growth.  Basic punchline: Republicans should pick Romney, who will be a slight favorite with sluggish economic growth, and a major favorite if the economy gets any worse.  Huntsman would be even better but that’s not happening.  Anyway, check it out if you haven’t already (it even has a nice interactive graphic):

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html?_r=1

***

What’s interesting is that not only is this consistent with Intrade and the Fair model, but its been reported that the only Republican candidate that President Obama’s campaign team views as a serious threat is Romney.

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