So Who Is The Front Runner For the Republican Nomination?

by robekulick

So who won the Republican Debate on September 23rd and does it matter?

In general the media consensus seems to be that Mitt Romney won, Rick Perry lost, and that it did matter in that it did matter, leading to his poor performance in the Florida Straw poll.  Often times, being in economist means being a contrarian, especially when it comes to the media. But the Intrade data over the past week shows that the media has it right this time. I pulled data from intrade on the closing prices of Romney and Perry contracts since September 15.

The red line is Mitt Romney. The blue line is Perry. What this graph shows is that up until September 22nd, the day of the debate, Romney and Perry were essentially tied. Indeed, on September 22nd, Intrade had the likelihood of Perry winning at 35.9% and Romney at 36.6%. Then on September 23rd, following the debate the previous night, Romney jumped to 42% while Perry fell to 32%.

As of today, Intrade is showing 45% for Romney and 24% for Perry.