Quick Response to Evan V. on Bachmann

by robekulick

Note – I plan to respond to Daniel S on his posts since he raises some very good points that warrant discussion, but I’m currently in econometrics hell, so I might not get around to that tonight. But just a quick response to Evan V’s post. Evan comments:

“Yeah, it looks like there have only been 382 contracts traded on the “Bachmann to be Republican Nominee” bet since January 7th. That seems really, really low. Also, I believe intrade has banned the use of credit and debit cards issued by U.S. banks, making it difficult for U.S. citizens to fund accounts and trade on the site.  That being said, I agree that Bachmann has virtually no chance of winning the nomination.”

I can see why you think that only 382 contracts have been traded because if you click on the Bachmann graph and look at the top where the green highlighting is, it says 0.382K contracts. However, if you look at the left hand side of the graph you’ll notice that it is denominated in 1000’s and that on some days over 1000 Bachmann contracts have changed hands. So 382 represents the average daily trade in Bachmann contacts, which is actually pretty impressive.