This Just In: Michele Bachmann Has Virtually No Chance of Becoming the Republican Nominee
From the way things are being reported in the media this week, you would think that the political landscape of the Republican party was fundamentally altered when Michele Bachmann won the Iowa Straw Poll and Pawlenty dropped out of the race. The subtext of the Michele Bachmann media frenzy is a concern among many that someone with the extreme and somewhat bizarre religious views of Bachmann (See this weeks New Yorker for an extensive summary) may become the Republican nominee and even President. However, before you start planning to move to whatever country it is you threaten to move to in these situations, quickly examine the latest data from Intrade:
According to the political futures market, the odds that Bachmann becomes the Republican nominee are still a whopping 7% and the general trend in her chances has been downward. Also note, that Pawlenty was hanging out around 7% or lower before he dropped out. Meanwhile, Rick Perry is running at about 36% as of this writing and Mitt Romney is at about 30%. Thus, this suggests that the political landscape is pretty much unchanged despite the Straw Poll. Actually, given that Intrade was about 50/50 on whether Bachmann or Ron Paul would win the Iowa Straw Poll, and Ron Paul of course has no chance ever being nominated, winning the Iowa straw poll is probably a fairly good indicator of being completely unelectable.